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There are many Dr. Dooms predicting the end of the bull market since 2009. It’s unfortunate that the investors that ignored their advice didn’t t receive a bonus dividend for their patience. This is the latest in the list of such experts. Remember, to time the market is not easy. In fact, you can lose out on some of the biggest positive market days by being out of the market.
In this article’s analysis from October 2014, the trends pointing toward a 30% market decline included the market volatility, a drop in buying duration activity compared to selling, big block buying and selling, and the correlation between the up days for stock prices to an up day in the NYSE.
The article did predict, but only indirectly, the reduction in oil prices. If only they would have turned their attention to oil instead of the entire market, they might have a Pulitzer Prize winning paper. We can only wait to see if this prediction from back in October hold true sometime in 2015.
Gary Kapanowski – Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt – Excelsior
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