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Fact: The price of crude oil has fallen by 30% since June.
With the inclusion of shale oil drilling by the US oil producers; this added supply will support this new level through 2015. When we review the lowering demand from China and Europe, prices for oil appears to remain at these levels than previous levels. The data support the prices. Supply has increased over 1.3 million barrels per day in 2014 while the demand was projected for only 0.7 million barrels per day. In 2015, US oil producers are continuing their increase in production by 0.7 million barrels per day. This is another increase of 1 million barrels per day each year since 2012 validates North America as the #2 oil producer in the world. With OPEC unwilling to reduce production by trying to maintain market share, downward pressure on oil prices will continue through 2015. With over 40 years of history of the Saudi Arabia oil producer reactions to the oil market, it appears that market share is more important than profit per barrel. I support this theory. We will get our first answer on the oil price on 11/27/14 during the OPEC semiannual meeting. If there are no production cuts, oil will remain under $100 for some time to come. Expect a price war for market share to start immediately.
Gary Kapanowski – Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt – Excelsior
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