The latest narrative coming from the market predictors is that lower oil price will produce a recession since people will have more money in their pockets to spend /save. This...
As you know by reading my blogs over time, the Fed was stuck holding the bag on leading the economic turnaround. El-Erian, the world’s most influential economist, explains that the advanced monetary policy cannot complete the job alone. As all the world’s banks adopt this policy, a race for the top or zero sum game can erupt into an undeclared currency war. As the world economy slows, the currency pressure will increase. Monetary policy cannot produce infrastructure investments needed to drive economic recovery or cure demand imbalance.
Areas to clean to restore the economic landscape:
- America’s willingness to tolerate sharp appreciation of the dollar’s exchange rate (strong dollar, hard to see change due to the overall results of a growing economy
- Financial markets’ willingness to assume and maintain risk postures not validated by the economy’s fundamentals
When the central banks start to retract from monetary easing, the main question is how the market will respond. Will there be no effect, positive effect or negative effect. As of now, many expect tend to believe it will be negative and some predict the currency war as described by El-Erian. Either way, keeping a diversified portfolio will assist you in any outcome.
Gary Kapanowski – Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt – Excelsior
The following blog is the opinion of Gary Kapanowski and Garykapanowski.com. It is the sole intent to broadcast this opinion from Gary Kapanowski and Garykapanowski.com exclusively and not to reflect on any other institutions or organizations associated with Gary Kapanowski or Garykapanowski.com.